FORECASTING THE DROUGHT INTERVALS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN PART OF ROMANIA PUBLISHEDV. MARAZAN, Ionela, BOLDIZSAR, Codruta, CHIS, Casiana MIHUT, Laura SMULEAC, Hortensia RADULESCU 1Department of Overland Communication Ways, Foundation and Cadastral Survey, Politehnica University of Timişoara, 300006, Timişoara, Romania 2Banat University of Agricultural Science and Veterinary Medicine “King Michael I of Romania”, 300645, Timişoara, Romania firstname.lastname@example.org
The study presents a mathematical interpretation of the drought periods from 2010 to 2015 and the relationship between the drought periods and the associated baric structures at the European level. There is an increase compared to the climatological norm of positive temperature anomalies at the level of 500 hPa for almost the entire frame of the year, the only exception being the winter period. The maximum period of time characterized by a positive temperature anomaly at the level of 500 hPa is found during the summer months, when a sustained transport of air masses of tropical origin to the western area of Romania is noted. Periods of positive temperature anomaly at the 500 hPa level range from a minimum of 10 days to nearly 50 days during the summer. The period of negative anomalies varies between 7 days and approximately 40 days, the longest duration being during the winter months. From the analysis correlated with the arrangement of the baric centres, certain trends of the drought installation periods can be established, especially in the case of interpolation between the meteorological data and the analyses at the synoptic level. Although there may be short periods characterized by atmospheric instability during the summer, there is an accentuated humidity deficit that cannot compensate for the increased rate of potential evapotranspiration. The present study represents an intermediate analysis of the situation from a longer period.
drought, agrometeorology, western Romania, mathematical modelling, agriculture