This study provides a comparative assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural sectors of Kenya and Romania, two nations with distinct agro-ecological, economic, and socio-political contexts. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, we analysed historical climate data (1990-2020), projected future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050), and agricultural productivity statistics for key staple and cash crops. In Kenya, a predominantly arid and semi-arid country reliant on rainfed smallholder farming, climate change manifests through increased temperature extremes, prolonged droughts, and erratic rainfall. Our analysis projects potential yield reductions for maize, a primary staple, of 10-20% by 2050, exacerbating food insecurity. Conversely, Romania, a temperate European nation with a mix of subsistence and large-scale commercial farming, faces challenges from heatwaves, shifting precipitation patterns, and increased flood frequency. While some northern regions may experience a lengthened growing season, our models indicate significant yield volatility for wheat and maize, with potential short-term increases but long-term declines of 5-15% under high-emission scenarios. The comparative analysis reveals that Kenya’s vulnerability is primarily driven by high exposure and sensitivity, coupled with low adaptive capacity due to economic constraints. Romania’s vulnerability, while lower, is characterized by a higher sensitivity of its extensive monoculture systems and institutional challenges in adapting its post-communist agricultural sector. This study concludes that effective adaptation strategies must be context-specific: Kenya requires investments in drought-resistant crops, water harvesting, and climate-smart pastoralism, while Romania needs to focus on crop diversification, improved irrigation infrastructure, and knowledge transfer. The findings underscore that climate impacts are not uniform and that national adaptation policies must be tailored to address unique biophysical and socio-economic vulnerabilities.

climate changes, agricultural productivity, adaptation strategies, climate-crop modelling, vulnerability

environmental engineering

Presentation: poster